• Germany announced Tuesday for the first time a local reconfiguration in the face of the eruption of a major outbreak of contamination from the largest slaughterhouse in Europe.
• A decision following a rather disturbing report from the Robert Koch institute stating that the contamination rate had increased significantly.
• Difficult to say for the moment if this information from across the Rhine should cause concern in France, even if the hypothesis of a local reconfiguration is not excluded, and could be difficult to accept.

After Beijing, which has decided to reconfigure certain districts of the Chinese capital , the risk is approaching.  Germany , presented as a model for its European neighbors, announced this Tuesday midday a partial reconfiguration in the canton of Gütersloh  , and that neighboring Warendorf. In particular, the cause of an outbreak of coronavirus contamination in a large slaughterhouse where more than 1,500 cases of infections have been detected in nearly 7,000 workers.

“We will reintroduce containment throughout the canton of Gütersloh”, which has about 360,000 inhabitants in the west of the country, said the leader of the region, North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet. Warendorf has 280,000 inhabitants. A decision comes after the Robert Koch Institute , which monitors the epidemic, warned this weekend that the rate of reproduction of the virus had significantly increased . What to worry about?

An R0 that climbs quickly

This report by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the equivalent of our Directorate General for Health (DGS), highlighted some interesting data. The transmission rate of the virus, known as RO, has reached 2.8. This means that 100 infected patients are at risk of infecting 280 people. Recall that the epidemic is considered to be under control when the RO drops below 1. And that it must be as low as possible to avoid a second wave. A fairly theoretical figure, but based on an increase in the number of cases, increased from 192 cases on June 15 to 687 cases on the 21st, according to the RKI.

Is it a sign that the virus has started to circulate again significantly among our German neighbors? In any case, the authorities were quick to react to this local reconfiguration. Until June 30, bars, cinemas, museums, fitness centers, swimming pools will remain closed and residents will have to limit contact.

An increase to put in perspective

This news gives some cold sweats to the French, who are just beginning to find a “normal” life with the reopening of cinemas since Monday and the return of compulsory schooling … Do these figures announce the start of the second wave?  In its press release , the Robert Koch Institute puts the scope of this increasing RO into perspective. First of all, it can be calculated either over four days or over a week. However, it is more around 2.03 – lower then 2.8 – if we smooth over a week.

Then, this contagion rate is based on the number of cases, not on the number of deaths, which remains low in Germany (a little less than 9,000) compared to France, Italy or Spain. “Given that the number of cases in Germany is generally low, these local epidemics have a relatively strong influence on this rate”, explains the Institute in its press release. Particularly in the case of this large cluster discovered in a slaughterhouse. “Today in Germany, as in France, we have fallen to a very small number of new cases of coronavirus per day, linked to localized groupings, confirms Michèle Legeas, teacher-researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHESP). The calculation of RO, a scientific tool popularized during this crisis, loses some of its meaning. This indicator was developed to estimate the impact on a large population of a contagious agent. “

Another critic of the specialist in the analysis and management of health risk situations: “It is useful if we assume that contagion is done in a random and homogeneous way. Now everyone knows that this is not the case. This coronavirus, like others in its family, does not spread randomly, it does not jump from one person to another like misery on the world. There must be circumstances, I like to speak of “situations”  and there are the weaknesses of some which increase the risks. “

Should we worry about it?

Beyond this criticizable RO, the announcement this Tuesday of the reconfiguration recalls that in France also, we see the emergence of clusters, especially in slaughterhouses. According to the latest DGS report of Monday , June 22 , 253 grouped cases have been identified since May 9, including five new ones. For Michèle Legeas, the decision of our neighbors invites us to maintain vigilance, not to create panic. “We must continue to take measures to limit the spread. This increasing RO does not mean that the virus is more contagious or that there are more situations favorable to the spread of the epidemic. “

Especially since it highlights certain differences between France and Germany in the management of the Covid . “Our neighbors have been less affected by the epidemic, with fewer deaths, people may have integrated risk less into their behavior and therefore may have relaxed the rules of prevention more quickly. In addition, they confined little, to maintain to the maximum the economic activities. “

The difficult acceptance of a reconfiguration

And in the event of a local restart of the epidemic, reconfiguring an entire country would make little sense. “Acting locally is perhaps the only way to prevent it from happening again,” she warns. To avoid phenomenal economic spinoffs, we are barely starting to touch our fingers. But also for a question of acceptability. If France were to follow the path of its German neighbor, the government would need to make an educational effort to explain the reasons for this decision. “It will be much more complicated to make people accept being reconfigured today,” advises Michèle Legeas. The government, which struck a big blow in March, risks finding itself destitute if ever we face localized returns from the epidemic. Especially since the confinement has highlighted social inequalities.